As global markets continue their roller coaster ride due to fears surrounding the coronavirus, our most recent bull market officially turned into a bear market. But what does that mean? And are we on the verge of another recession like the one we had in 2008?
In light of all these concerns, today we’ll share what you need to know about recessions and bear markets. If you are worried about your portfolio, we understand and we’re here to help. Feel free to contact our office to get answers to your specific questions.
What Is A Bear Market?
A bear market happens when an overall market benchmark, such as the S&P 500, dips by 20% or more from its most recent high. (1) This is often accompanied by negative investor sentiment and more selling than buying.
It’s important to highlight that normal stock market volatility isn’t an indicator of a bear market. Normal dips and swings are necessary for long-term growth and shouldn’t be cause for concern.
What Is A Recession?
A recession is defined as two consecutive quarters of economic decline (emphasis on the word economic). They’re measured using factors such as the employment rate, gross domestic product, bond yield curves, and other factors independent of the stock market. (2)
Economists declare recessions retroactively. For example, the Great Recession wasn’t confirmed until November 2008—11 months after it started. (3)
Bear Markets Vs. Recessions: How Are They Related?
A bear market relates to the stock market. A recession relates to the economy. Contrary to popular belief, the stock market is not the economy. What drives the stock market is investor emotions—which, as we all know, can be fickle. As humans, we have a tendency to be overly optimistic when there’s no data to support our feelings, and pessimistic when data looks great.
Recessions are the complete opposite. Tangible factors determine the state of our economy. There’s no emotion involved. Which begs the question: Why do people correlate recessions and bear markets?
If you look back on history, recessions and bear markets have usually occurred around the same time. Of the last 11 S&P 500 bear markets we’ve had since 1957, 63.6% came after a recession. (4) The two go hand in hand, but they’re not the same.
Not even highly educated economists can predict a bear market or recession. There’s a lot of speculation that goes on in the news, but it’s just that—speculation.
What Should Investors Do?
The best thing to do as a long-term investor is to find an optimal portfolio that balances your comfortable level of risk and return. The actions you take in the stock market should be independent of whether economists think we’re entering a bear market or recession.
And as many financial experts have advised: Your 401(k) right now is like your face: Don’t touch it. Selling due to fear when the market is down locks in your losses and can do long-term damage to your financial future.
Speak With Your Advisor
Please call us with questions or concerns. Human nature causes us all to act out of emotion when our accounts go down. As an independent firm, we put your best interests first. We seek to serve as a support system for our clients, helping them make informed financial decisions that are not driven by emotion.
We’re Here For Your Friends And Family
If you have friends or family who need help with their investments, we are happy to offer a complimentary portfolio review and recommendations. We can discuss what is appropriate for their immediate needs and long-term objectives. Sometimes simply speaking with a financial advisor may help investors feel more confident and less concerned with the most recent market activity.
David Domian has been working in the financial services industry since 1980 and specializes in financial planning with a focus on retirement planning. His planning concentrates on four specific goals: the accumulation of wealth, the reduction of taxes and volatility in retirement, the necessary strategies to deal with the risks of longevity, and the passing of an estate in a private, tax-efficient, and protected manner. David holds designations as a CFP® CERTIFIED FINANCIAL PLANNER™, ChFC® Chartered Financial Consultant, CLU® Chartered Life Underwriter, and AEP® Accredited Estate Planner®.
David has been married to his wife, Sue, for over 41 years, and together they have four children and eight grandchildren. Dave is a big believer in family and still has family dinners almost every Sunday with most of his kids, grandchildren, and even his 97-year-old mother. Dave and Sue have lived in St. Louis all their lives. He enjoys spending time outdoors, especially fishing with his grandchildren; he knows they will only be young for so long and you have to live in the moment. This year will be Dave’s 18th annual cross-country motorcycle trip with three college friends; together they have traveled through over 40 states on these memorable road trips.
Dave and Sue support many charitable organizations, including the MS-Society, Cystic Fibrosis, the Lupus Foundation, St. Louis Men’s Group Against Cancer, and the Mary Culver Home for vision-impaired women, where his mother lives. Their support comes in an unusual way: Dave and Sue donate a BBQ (including a pig roast, cooked, carved, and served on site), which is auctioned off at one of their live events. This popular auction item is a great way for Dave and Sue to have fun and do some good in the community. Dave also serves as a board member on the Estate Planning Council of St. Louis.